Headlines have blazed with news of a nuclear deal with Iran. The full text of the deal wasn’t even released yet and politicians had already started to praise it as diplomatic brilliance or dismissed it as the deal that would doom America and empower Iran.
Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Iran has been the enemy of the United States. Ruled by an oppressive theocratic government under the Shiite Islamic leadership of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic of Iran has consistently been at odds with the US, the EU, Israel, and many of the US’ Gulf Monarchy allies. While the only large conflict of note in the past couple decades was the Iraq-Iran War of 1980 when Iraq (under Saddam Hussein) invaded Iran, Iran has been active in the region by using proxy forces and Shiite militias to assert both sectarian and geopolitical influence. It is well documented that they fund several terrorist organizations as well.
With this understanding of Iran’s antagonistic relationship with the international community, it is clear why the world powers were so eager to make a deal.
In this edition of Ben Meets World, I’ll take a look at Iran’s nuclear history and break down what this nuclear deal means for Iran, the US, and all the other actors involved.
Iran’s History With Nuclear Technology
Before the Iranian Revolution, Iran had a decent sized nuclear energy program with plenty of foreign investment. The US and several European countries were prominent investors.
However, following the Iranian Revolution most of its nuclear program was abandoned due to a lack of funding and nuclear fuel. US pressure kept foreign nuclear investment out of Iran. Several of Iran’s main reactors were damaged in the Iran-Iraq War, entirely halting its nuclear program.
In the 1990s, a few countries, primarily Russia, began working with Iran again, mainly to provide training and to help rebuild several reactors. Iran was still limited by a lack of easy nuclear fuel sources, so they began try to develop domestic uranium mines at this point.
In 2002, the international community became aware of two new nuclear facilities under construction in Iran: an underground nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy water (which can easily be used to extract plutonium for nuclear weapons) facility at Arak. It was at this point that the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) attempted to inspect Iran’s nuclear program in earnest.
For the next four years, various diplomatic attempts would be made to try to force Iran to yield full access and knowledge about its nuclear program to the UN. But a series of broken deals, Iran’s unwillingness to surrender its full nuclear program, and a lack of trust on both sides nixed any diplomatic gains. Iran pushed onwards with their nuclear program, and by 2006 Iran was fully capable of uranium enrichment.
Via: Wikimedia
Iran refused to fully give up its new ability to enrich uranium, which left them slapped with a series of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions culminating in sanctions of their economy and a total sanction of their military and arms trade by 2010. Iran’s response was to simply continue expansion of their program, and reports surfaced of the nuclear program starting to lean into military applications. No actual nuclear military applications surfaced, but the threat of that happening remained and fueled a climate of mistrust between Iran and other countries.
Russia and China, both veto-power UNSC members, refused to go further on Iranian sanctions. In response, the US and the EU took up unilateral measures and completely sanctioned Iranian banking and oil industries. The sanctions got so severe that Iran elected in a new president more open to diplomatic negotiation in 2013.
From 2013 to 2015, Iran and the P5+1 (the UNSC members – the US, Russia, China, France, the UK – plus Germany) held a series of negotiations that finally culminated in a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear program. On July 15th, 2015, the P5+1 and Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that, once ratified by the respective countries, would put into a place a series of regulations on Iran’s nuclear program in return for finally lifting the sanctions that have crippled Iran.
The Main Provisions of the Deal
The deal is 159 pages of a very technical nature. However, it is easily broken down into several main provisions that summarize the intent of the deal.
Via: PBS.org
Extension of Breakout Time
“Breakout time” is the projected minimum time necessary for Iran to attempt to build a nuclear weapon. The deal will extend this “breakout time” to a year from the current two or three months by the following:
-Eliminating 98% of Iran’s current stockpile of low-enriched uranium, leaving them with only 300 kilograms. They will be limited to this small stockpile size for 15 years.
-Limiting the number of active centrifuges (used to enrich uranium) to only 5060. Iran currently has roughly 19,000 active. However, after around 10 years, centrifuge restrictions will be lifted, and Iran will be able to resume development. Breakout time will likely drop down to a couple months again after this point.
Lifting of Sanctions
Iran has long been crippled by extensive economic sanctions that have cut Iran’s oil industry, banks, and businesses from the global market. The deal will lift these sanctions in stages, and a new international panel would reserve the right to slam sanctions back if Iran is found to be in violation of the deal in any manner.
Ending the Embargo on Arms Trade
Iran is currently barred by the United Nations from making weapons purchases. Under the deal, Iran will be allowed to buy conventional weapons within five years, and ballistic missiles within eight years. If the IAEA finds no evidence of cheating the deal, no covert nuclear weapons acquisition, and it confirms that the Iranians will keep their nuclear program peaceful, the bans could be lifted sooner.
Extensive Inspections System
The IAEA will be allowed regular, extensive access to Iran’s nuclear sites for 25 years, with some access becoming permanent. Iran will be able to reserve the right for a 24 day max delay before inspections.
Via: Wikipedia
The Winners, the Losers, and the Inbetweeners
Winners
Iran – This one is obvious. A restored economy. A means to modernize their industries, infrastructure, and military. Renewed access to global markets and the ability to sell oil once again. An eventual end to the arms embargo. They may have to comply with nuclear restrictions, but the payoff is too good for them and they will return to their status as an oil power. If they’re smart about how they use their new economic revenues and market access, they might eclipse their regional rivals. At the very least they will be in a position to try to overtake the militarily-incompetent Saudi Arabia.
China – China has been everywhere there is oil, investing heavily in local oil industries and infrastructure, even bailing certain oil countries to assert influence later on. To them, Iran will be a jackpot for investment, with its largely neglected oil industry and massive oil reserves.
Syria – Iran has long backed Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria, providing them with plenty of weapons and funding, and even fighters for his civil war against Syrian rebels and ISIS. When Iran’s sanctions are lifted, expect that funding to increase. If Assad is still in power in about half a decade (which is very likely at this point), when the arms embargo ends there will likely be in influx of more advanced weaponry than what is currently being supplied to Assad.
Iran’s Proxies – Iran funds, arms, and even augments several proxy armies across the the Middle East, with the more prominent ones being Hamas, Hezbollah, and more recently Yemen’s Houthis and the Shiite militias in Iraq. With sanctions lifted, and the arms embargo to follow in half a decade, these proxies will be enjoying a lot more support from their Iranian sponsors. It remains to be seen if Iran will be able to successfully use these proxies to exert influence, but nonetheless they will access to a lot more support.
Via: Wikipedia
Losers
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Monarchies – The Gulf Monarchies hate Iran. While outwardly glad that a Middle East nuclear arms race has been delayed for another decade or so, inwardly they probably aren’t too happy that their geopolitical foe will soon be able to assert itself more in the region. For now, they’ll have to content themselves with an arms spending spree in an effort to establish enough of a margin of defense to stay above Iran, before the arms embargo ends.
Israel – The P5+1 completely ignored Israel while negotiating the deal, which pissed them off to no end. Now Israel’s worst geopolitical enemy is about to be restored to full economic power. Israel will no doubt soon content with much better funded versions of Iran’s proxies in the region, and possibly directly with Iran itself. Expect Israel to increase military spending to counter this.
Inbetweeners
The United States – The US has ensured that Iran will be incapable of building a nuke for 10, maybe 15 years. Before there was always a high risk, but now there will be almost none. The problem is that now Iran’s economy and oil industry will be completely unshackled. After they spend their initial cash flows on rebuilding their industries and infrastructure, they will have a ton of funds to influence the region, especially in terms of arming proxies and overhauling their own military. Even with sanctions they’ve been able to exert considerable influence. Imagine what they could do with a restored economy and replenished funds. The good news is that this deal has firmly put US and UN feet into the door of Iran, and even though the deal’s restrictions will end in a decade or so, the framework will be in place to help ensure Iran does not develop a nuclear shield in any easy manner.
Russia – Russia likes to do anything they can to poke the eyes of the West and the US. This is one of the main reasons why they have long been supporters of Iran, and why they are especially gleeful that sanctions will be lifted on their ally. The problem for Russia is that while their geopolitical ally in the Middle East will be unshackled, Iran will be flooding the markets with oil in a short span of years. This is bad for Russia because anytime Saudi Arabia has done that (and the Saudis do it precisely to mess with other oil countries like Russia), Russia’s oil-dependent economy has tanked into recession. The initial surge of Iranian oil returning to the global market will do the same to Russia, and after that point Iran will be more than capable of taking a leaf from Saudi Arabia’s book if the need arose.
My Opinion on the Matter
Iran has a long history of refusing to cooperate with the international community in full inspections and regulation of their nuclear program. This deal represents the single biggest breakthrough, and stands to install several permanent and extensive inspection mechanisms that will make it incredibly difficult for Iran to develop a nuclear weapons arsenal, regardless of the fact that nuclear program restrictions will start to life after a decade.
It is unlikely that Iran will flaunt these new regulations for a nuclear device at the risk of getting slammed again with major sanctions that completely hobble Iran’s economy. Once they start investing revenue back into their country, the Iranians will be very unwilling to deal with sanctions once more.
There are some who worry that this bill will limit the US’ ability to take military action against Iran as a last resort. To those individuals, I say that they fail to recognize the nature of US military ability: the US can bomb them whenever they want, no one can stop them, and the US is not above completely ignoring the UN to carry out military action.
The last main criticism of this deal is that by lifting sanctions, Iran will be free to access a massive amount of funds to sponsor terrorist groups and militias across the region. The problem with this is that it would be moronic for Iran to devote a majority of its new revenue to funding proxies. The very reason why Iran capitulated in the first place and finally agreed to a deal of this caliber, is that its people couldn’t tolerate any more spartan conditions imposed on them by the sanctions. I doubt the Iranian government wants to commit political suicide. While Iran will certainly be stepping up their sponsorship, it won’t be at regional doomsday levels.
While the deal may be finalized, it still needs to be ratified by each P5+1 country and Iran by their respective governments. Iran and the US pose the biggest uncertainty for ratification, with Iran’s Khamenei still spouting his anti-US rhetoric and with the US Congress up in arms over the deal (although many are confused or ignorant as to what exactly is in the deal). In the end though, Khamenei will give his greenlight for the deal, and the Obama administration will use political maneuvering in both Congress and the UNSC to ensure that US critics of the deal don’t blow it up.
Like any major diplomatic development, there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how this nuclear deal will affect Middle Eastern and North African geopolitics. While we may be unsure if the overall effect will be positive or negative, what is certain is that there will be major geopolitical changes and the threat of a new nuclear arms race has been kicked down to the future.
