National Geographic says nine in 10 of us can’t locate Iraq on a map.
That means the thousands of hours we, the 18 to 24 set, spend consuming media each year has resulted in little more than wasted time and a few “Likes.”
If that’s you, scanning an Atlas with a frantic index finger (hint: Iraq is in Asia), you’ve come to the right place.
Foreign policy aficionado Ben Duong will decipher media-babble, ignore the talking heads and give you the information and facts about all the latest geopolitical hoopla dominating the news cycle this week, bringing you one step further to being the informed adult you oughta be.
Welcome to Ben Meets World.
Out of all the major United States engagements overseas, U.S. involvement in Yemen might be one of the most downplayed.
Perhaps you’ve heard of all the U.S. drone strikes against terrorists in Yemen. Or maybe you’ve heard of the U.S. Navy having a standoff with Iranian warships off the Yemeni coast recently. But beyond that, it is unlikely that you’ve heard about the U.S. evacuating their embassy in Yemen (effectively abandoning all remaining U.S. citizens in the country), or the Saudi-Iranian proxy war that threatens to implode the country and trigger another massive humanitarian crisis in the Middle East.
In this week’s edition of Ben Meets world, I tackle the Yemen conflict and try to shed some light on the issues that surround this war.
Background
In 1999, after decades of bloody conflict, Ali Abdullah Saleh became the first directly elected president. The election was only held after Yemen had unified its north and south. Saleh and his parliament soon passed several laws in 2001, extending the length of terms of office. This sparked some violence over an apparent attempt to extend Saleh’s rule and powers.
As grievances against an increasingly authoritarian government mounted, dissident Shia cleric Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi of the Zaidi Shia sect started an uprising in 2004 against the Yemeni government. Based in northern Yemen, these “Houthis” claimed to be “defending their community against discrimination and government aggression.” The Yemeni government in return accused the Houthis of attempting to overthrow the government and implement Shia religious law.
As conflict between the Yemeni government and the Houthis escalated, al-Qaeda began to take advantage of the fighting. In 2009, the Saudi and Yemeni branches of al-Qaeda merged to form Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). While Yemen, aided by Saudi Arabia, launched offensives against the Houthis, AQAP built an extensive base of operations in eastern Yemen.
Under President Obama, the U.S. began a counterterrorism offensive against AQAP, relying extensively on drones and United States-funded Yemeni forces. Problems for the U.S. arose when strikes on what were ostensibly AQAP camps ended up killing more than 60 civilians — 28 of whom were reported as children. Further controversy over the classified U.S. drone war in Yemen would arise after the drone strikes killed several U.S. citizens associated with AQAP in Yemen.
The volatile state of Yemen finally came to a boiling point when the Arab Spring (a series of pro-democracy protests across North Africa and the Middle East) broke out in 2011. The Yemeni people rose up against the government, demanding improvements for the country and rallying against proposals to modify Yemen’s constitution to allow Saleh’s son to inherit the presidency. As Saleh violently cracked down on the protestors, he drew significant international condemnation, and was soon pressured out of government and fled to Saudi Arabia. Saleh transferred power over to Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi.
The Yemeni government remained weak after Hadi took power and the Houthis advanced their insurgency. By September 2014 they had swept south into the capital to force Hadi into a unity government. Claiming the terms as a mask for further undermining their position, the Houthis soon drove Hadi and his government into resignation and exile. The Houthis dissolved the parliament and declared a “Revolutionary Committee” under Mohammed Ali al-Houthi as the interim authority. The United Nations and many foreign governments condemned the actions of the Houthis.
Hadi fled south from Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, to Aden where he promptly reversed his resignation, condemned the coup and declared Aden to be Yemen’s temporary capital. The Houthis would have none of this, and pushed south into Aden. As Aden was torn apart by fighting, Hadi fled to Saudi Arabia. The U.S., in complete shock over the sudden takeover, shut down its embassy and abandoned ship. Other countries soon followed suit.
With little warning, Saudi Arabia decided to take matters into its own hands. Its actions have precipitated this civil war into what is becoming a proxy war between the Saudis and the Iranians.
Via: Boom Live
The Actors
The Houthis
Originally comprised of just insurgents from the Zaidi Shia (who are about a third of Yemen’s population), the Houthis united with several other groups in the early 2010s due to Saleh’s inability to improve Yemen during his strongman presidency. After the Houthis forced Hadi to flee south, the Houthis seized several military bases and huge weapons depots.
While many insurgencies are somewhat manageable, the Houthis’ remarkable sweep of Yemen was aided by defections of large swathes of Yemen’s military to the Houthis’ cause. There are reports that Saleh, who still holds influence in the armed forces, is using the Houthis in an attempt to return to power. Furthermore, there are some reports claiming that Iran is helping to fund and arm the Houthis. The Houthis are still fighting for control over Aden and the few remaining loyalist pockets in the south.
Via: Conflict Observer Project
Yemeni Government
Surrounded in Aden and led by the exiled Hadi, the Yemeni government is fighting a losing battle to maintain a hold in Yemen. While much of the unpopulated east remains under Yemeni control, it has lost the majority of the more populated west where most of Yemen’s cities are located. Following defections by the Saleh elements of the military, there is little left of its military power. Its only hope lies in the actions of Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia
With the exile of Hadi, the Saudi Arabia fully revealed its hand in the Yemen conflict. Assembling a coalition of five Gulf States and Sudan, Morocco, Jordan and Egypt, it declared a massive air campaign against the Houthis and accused Iran of directly supporting the Houthis. Fearing for its security (note the very long border it shares with Yemen), the government has effectively pulled out all the stops, short of a full ground invasion, in its attempt to reverse Houthi gains. There are now reports however, that the Saudi-led coalition has deployed a limited force into Aden. If Saudi Arabia continues to press the attack, there is little doubt that it will engage a ground war against the Houthis.
The United States
The U.S. has severely limited their involvement in the Yemen conflict. So far the U.S. has only provided logistical help to the Saudi-led coalition, refueling their bombers and providing things like military intelligence. This does not mean there are serious ramifications for the U.S. (for reasons I will go into later on).
In early May, the U.S. pledged $68 million to international aid groups assisting civilians caught in the conflict.
Iran
Iran has long denied providing military supplies and training to the Houthis as an attempt to use them as a proxy in the Arabian Peninsula. It is clear though, that Iran remains the Houthis’ main backer, and has been providing them aid for many years. Their most recent actions have sent warships off the Yemeni coast. While the Iranian government claims to be conducting anti-piracy operations, its presence has amplified tensions with the Saudi-led coalition and the U.S. With the U.S. effectively siding against Iran in the Yemen conflict, tensions here could threaten to derail the Iranian nuclear power talks.
AQAP
Noted by the U.S. as the most dangerous branch of the Sunni militant group, al-Qaeda, they aim to establish both an Islamic caliphate and Sharia law in the region. Based out of the south and southeast of Yemen (incidentally the ancestral homeland of al-Qaeda founder Osama bin-Laden), they have taken advantage of the chaos of the Yemen conflict to launch attacks and reassert their presence. They hate both the Houthis and the Yemeni government.
My Opinion on the Matter
The Obama administration is responsible for both increasing drone strike operations in Yemen and increasing military aid to Saleh and then Hadi to fight AQAP. The U.S. hailed their efforts in Yemen as the ideal for counterterrorism efforts, and the U.N. followed up with praise saying that Yemen was “the only example in the region of a peaceful negotiated transition that is based on a comprehensive map and a genuine national dialogue.”
Both assessments were completely wrong.
While promising to help fight terrorists, both Saleh and Hadi used U.S. military aid to secure government holdings and antagonize the Houthis. When Saleh was pushed from power, he then turned this into an alliance with the Houthis to try to regain power. U.S. drone strike operations have proven to be horrendously inaccurate at times and have zero accountability.
In the chaos of the conflict, AQAP has a huge power gap to exploit. Once on the run, AQAP has actually seized new territory and regained their presence. The Houthis, who hate AQAP, are in little position to try anything while pinned down by Saudi coalition airstrikes. What was the U.S. ideal has devolved into the U.S. nightmare.
The Saudi-led coalition, which the U.S. backs, is making more of a mess of Yemen than anyone anticipated. After hundreds of airstrikes, all they have done is destroyed Yemen’s infrastructure and killed and injured thousands of civilians — there are even reports of their strikes damaging prisons enough to let loose many AQAP prisoners. Human rights organizations are now pointing to a total collapse that is primed to cripple Yemen if the indiscriminate air strikes continue. If the coalition launches a full ground war, it will take decades if not more to heal what little will remain of Yemen after.
Via: Washington Street Journal
I argue that the U.S. should cease support for the Saudi-led coalition and pressure them to stop their offensive against the Houthis.
If left to it, the Saudis will not rest until the Houthis are completely destroyed. Their massive shared border with Yemen means that the Saudis will not tolerate a country under the control of a faction so blatantly supported by Iran, their regional enemy. The relative incompetence of the Saudi military will ensure that their offense against the Houthis will not be a “clean” one (as you can already see). This means that there will be no saving Yemen from humanitarian doom.
Trying to get rid of the Houthis (as the Saudis want) will break Yemen in the process. Letting the Houthis remain the dominant power though, will give Iran a huge foot in the door to conduct further operations to extend their power into the region. With an easing of sanctions due to the nuclear power talks, they will have much more funding to operate. This would leave Saudi Arabia in a paranoid, antagonistic mess.
At the core of the matter is disenfranchisement. The Houthis are not about establishing some form of sectarian Shiite rule. In fact most Yemeni people are more than happy to coexist with the different religious sects in Yemen. Despite claims from the Saudis, the Iranians or even the U.S., the immediate conflict between the Houthis and the Yemeni government is centered on denial of political participation for the Houthis.
The problem of this perceived sectarian war is the result of the Saudi-Iranian proxy war this conflict has ballooned into. The inherent nature of the Saudi-Iranian conflict, in any form, is one of sectarian hate. And unfortunately, the Houthis are more than willing to play up their Shia identity to gain favor and aid from the Iranians. As this war continues, we may find that perceived religious hate becomes reality.
This leaves U.S. with a very complicated solution: pressure the Saudi-led coalition to back down, pressure the Iranians to stop egging on the Houthis, force the Houthis to relinquish control of Yemen but guarantee them greater political participation and finally prevent strongmen like Saleh and Hadi from returning to power (while placing more democratic controls into law). This will not be an easy task, and the only alternative would be for the U.S. to completely turn against the Saudis and pressure them to accept Houthi control of Yemen.
Democracy is not easy to establish in a region that has little history dealing with it. The U.S., and their unwillingness to recognize this fact along with their over-reliance on military solutions, has consistently created more problems than it has fixed.
While a complete overhaul of U.S. foreign policy is a more daunting and unlikely task, some of these lessons can be applied to the Yemen conflict now. If the U.S. doesn’t, it will be leaving the fate of Yemeni citizens in the hands of a military coalition that seems to have bombed literally everything but the Houthis.
Feature photo courtesy of The Guardian
